Mad Max or the Matrix?
All futurology falls into one of two categories.
The first branch predicts that we will soon become subsumed
in our technology and radically alter human nature by either becoming immortal
or having genetically altered babies or uploading our brains into computers,
etc. These people I call New Testament
Transhumanists because they have heard the good news of Technology and welcome
its commencing.
The second type of futurist is the Old Testament Transhumanist. He agrees with the New Testament folks that technology is accelerating, but is fearful of the inevitable techno-future. Leon Kass and Bill Joy fall into this category. Some, like the Peak Oil people, believe that we will be betrayed by technology and hurled back into the Olduvai Gorge to live like cavemen again.
Some people flip-flop between these two positions. For instance, British journalist Bryan
Appleyard wrote a book called Brave New Worlds: Staying Human in the Genetic Future where he wrings his hands about a future similar to Huxley’s novel. However, here is an article where Appleyard
now says that we are heading to a “New Dark Age” where technology will fail
us.
Can’t the truth be somewhere in the middle!!!
This is precisely my point.
Our future lies somewhere in the roomy middle (see figure below). My argument against both branches of futurism
is radical in how boring it is which is precisely why you will never hear of it
in the popular media. Our future is more
of the same.



I don't know why people consider Peak Oil some kind of doomsday cult. We can empirically observe the world's oil, supply, and we can see what happens when the supply runs short.
Peak Oil has already hit the planet's marginal countries, for example:
Peak Oil hits the Third World
http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/peak+oil-renewable+energy-shortages/490
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Another example of energy regression:
Toiling in the Dark: Africa’s Power Crisis
http://www.box.net/shared/static/44notzcaij.pdf
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Peak oil is also a reality in the Alberta Tar Sands, where they're talking about having to build NUCLEAR F**cking REACTORS to provide the energy needed to extract the oil.
Peak oil doesn't mean the world will run out of oil and revert to candlepower overnight. It just means the point at which the cost of extracting oil from deeper and more technologically inaccessible reserves starts to exceed the dollar value of the energy stored in that oil - in other words, the point at which oil starts to become economically unviable as an energy source.
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Transhumanists Rule!
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